Comment 111245

By Noted (anonymous) | Posted April 29, 2015 at 15:10:26 in reply to Comment 111221

Or maybe it assumes that the latent transit ridership for the corridor would remain unchanged regardless of which modes service the corridor.

My napkin math finds that from 7am-7pm weekdays, routes 1 and 10 operate around 167 buses (mainly artics) while the 5 and 51 run 150 (occasionally artics). Even if you assume all these buses are the same model, that's a 53% share for the 1&10. Factor the practical capacity and the demonstrated passenger load and you may get to 66%.

The 2/3 explanation is characteristically vague: "Public transportation industry consultants have stated that two-thirds of ridership from the existing B-Line corridor can be expected to transfer to the LRT B-Line causing an immediate 8% city-wide ridership increase to potentially occur with the implementation of an LRT system." (p. 131)

No footnotes or appendices explaining the methodology, just a potential outcome with some numbers attached.

Another notable service assumption: "There may be a need for a reduction in service frequency to fully utilize the available train capacity." It is unclear whether that refers to bus service, LRT service or both.

Meet the new crushload, same as the old crushload.

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