Comment 27980

By A Smith (anonymous) | Posted December 23, 2008 at 10:32:01

Ryan, at its core, peak oil relies on the assumption that oil production has "peaked", or at least is unable to keep up with demand in such a way as to keep prices at moderate levels.

However, why should anyone assume that oil production has peaked? As far as I can tell, oil production has continued to grow to match world demand, but has done so with long periods of flat production levels. For example, in 1979, the world produced about 62 mbpd and then only reached that level again in 1995. However, during this time period oil prices came down, even though the U.S. economy grew at rates averaging above 3%.

Therefore, if history is any guide, we could have another 16 years of excellent GDP growth ahead of us, where oil production stays essentially flat and oil prices average around $30 a barrel.

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